I Was Working 12-Hour Shifts to Fund a Strategy That Statistically Doesn't Work (Part 2)
- Simon Wong
- Jul 3
- 10 min read
The simple strategy that beats 96% of stock pickers — and how to use it with your NHS pay
Welcome back.
If you read Part 1, you've already seen the data that most people never get shown. The landmark Bessembinder research that analysed nearly 30,000 stocks over almost a century and revealed some uncomfortable truths.
Here's the quick recap:
51.6% of all stocks had negative cumulative returns — more than half of every stock ever listed lost money over its lifetime.
Four out of seven stocks failed to even beat the returns of a basic high interest savings account.
Just 4% of stocks created ALL the wealth in the entire US stock market. And only 86 companies — less than 0.33% of the total — were responsible for over half of all wealth creation.
The most common outcome for a stock lifetime? A 100% loss.
The odds are stacked against you. Picking individual winners is statistically closer to gambling than investing. And even the headline stocks everyone's chasing — Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon — already had their massive runs before they became household names. To profit from stock picking, you'd need to spot winners before anyone else, with research capabilities that rival multi-million pound hedge funds. By the time you buy into a hot stock, your downside risk outweighs your potential further growth. You will need impeckable foresight, market timing and luck, to do this repeatedly, year-after-year throughout your life.
You've got a qualification in healthcare. Not in financial analysis. So if stock picking doesn't work, what does? That's what Part 2 is all about here.
The Solution Is Beautifully Simple
John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard and the man who invented the index fund, said it perfectly: 'Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the entire haystack.'
That's exactly what a globally diversified index fund does.
When you invest in a fund that tracks, say, the MSCI World Index, FTSE Global All Cap or the S&P 500, you automatically own a slice of every major company. You don't need to guess which 4% will create all the wealth. You own them all.
The 4% of winners pull your entire portfolio group of stocks up. The losers barely drag it down because they shrink as a tiny proportion of the index.
And this is where the Bessembinder research really drives the point home. We know that just 4% of stocks created ALL the wealth in he stock market. With an index fund, that 4% automatically included and is doing the heavy lifting for you. Their compound growth powers the entire index upward.
Fund Investing - the Self-Cleansing Machine
And here's the beauty of how an index works in practice. If an unexpected winner emerges — the next Nvidia, the next company nobody saw coming — you already own it. By the time a company is large enough to be included in a major index, you've got it in your portfolio. As it grows, its weighting, i.e. portion in the index, grows with it. You ride the wave up without ever having to spot it early or time your entry.
What about the losers? They take care of themselves too. As a failing company's share price drops, it becomes a smaller and smaller proportion of the index. Eventually, if it shrinks enough, it gets removed from the index altogether. So the damage a losing stock can do to your portfolio is naturally limited — it becomes irrelevant long before it disappears completely.
The successful stocks grow so much bigger than the failing ones that the losers simply don't matter in the grand scheme of things.
The index is essentially self-cleansing. Winners get included and grows bigger. Losers fade away.
You don't have to do any analysis, or worrying at night. It's the only strategy that guarantees you'll own every future big winner. And you can do it from your phone, in your Stocks & Shares ISA, for less than 0.25% in annual fees, in about 10 minutes.
No stock analysis. No FOMO. No checking your portfolio during handover.
Let's Do Some Quick Everyday NHS Maths
Here's the shift in thinking that changes everything.
It's not about what stocks you're buying. The Bessembinder data already settled that debate — you can't reliably pick the winners, so own them all through an index fund and move on.
Focus on what you CAN control
What ACTUALLY matters is your money psychology and your investing discipline in everyday life. How much of your income are you consistently pouring into the stock market to enjoy the compound growth of business value creation? That's the question that determines your financial future. Not which stock. Not which sector. Not which hot tip.
Let Compound Growth do it's thing - stop interfering
It's about how many shares within the index you are buying and accumulating. Then holding them for a prolonged period of time — through the ups and through the downs, allowing the fundamental compound growth of business value creation in the world.
Buy more when cheap, Buy less when overpriced
When the market dips and share prices get cheaper, your regular monthly contribution buys you more shares. When the market runs hot and prices get expensive, your same contribution buys fewer shares. Over time, this naturally averages out your cost and works in your favour. You don't need to time anything. You just need to keep showing up.
The real game isn't stock selection. It's budgeting. It's controlling your spending. It's making sure that every month, without fail, a meaningful amount of your NHS salary goes to work for you in the market.
Say you're a Band 6 nurse or an ST3 registrar. You commit to investing £300 a month into a low-cost global index fund inside your ISA.
At a historically conservative average return of around 7% per year:
After 10 years: roughly £52,000
After 20 years: roughly £157,000
After 30 years: roughly £353,000 (£108,000 of your contribution, £244,000 purely from growth you didn't have to work for)
That's with no stock picking. No guessing. No stress.
If you save yor £20 monthly subscription you pay for but don't actually use and add to your £300 monthly contribution, that £353,000 turns to £376,661. An extra £24,000 you didn't have to work for! How many hours do you have to work to get £24,000?
The difference between someone who retires financially free and someone who doesn't, isn't stock picking ability. It's the discipline to invest consistently, month after month, year after year — and the money psychology to stay the course when everyone else is panicking.
Which strategy sounds better suited to someone working 12-hour shifts in the NHS?
The Ego Trap within a Gamified Market
I'll be honest with you. The hardest part of accepting this data isn't the maths. It's the ego.
We all want to believe we're smarter than average.
And look, I'll be the first to admit it — trading individual stocks IS exciting. There's no denying that. There's a gamification process built into the whole thing. The apps are designed to make it feel like a game. The green arrows, the notifications, the dopamine hit when your pick goes up. Watching a stock you chose yourself climb 10%, 20%, 30% — it's exhilarating.
But let's call it what it is.
Would you take your hard-earned savings — money you've worked 12-hour shifts, nights, weekends, and bank holidays to earn — and bet it all on a single number on a roulette wheel? And then call that investing for your future wealth and financial freedom?
Of course you wouldn't. That's gambling.
But here's the thing. Picking a single stock actually gives you worse odds. A roulette number pays out at 1 in 37. Your odds of picking one of the 86 stocks that created half the market's wealth? About 1 in 340.
The excitement is real. But excitement isn't a strategy. And your financial future isn't a game.
I know this because I've been there myself.
I spent years picking individual stocks. Convinced I could find the winners. Convinced I was different. And every now and then, I'd get one right — and that dopamine hit would keep me coming back for more. For every rare win, there were losses that stung far harder, because I swung harder. The kind that keep you awake at night after a long shift, staring at your phone, watching your hard-earned money evaporate in real time.
The most valuable lesson in my last 15 years, wasn't about which stock to buy or when to sell. It was about humility.
Recognising that the market is bigger, smarter, and more unpredictable than any one person — no matter how many hours you put into research.
When I finally accepted that and changed my approach, everything shifted. Nikki and I watched our wealth grow in a way that stock picking never delivered. Not because we found some secret strategy. But because we stopped fighting the data and started working with it. Less stress. Less guesswork. More consistency. More growth.
That's the transformation I want for every NHS professional reading this.
I still believe there's a place for individual stock investing — for people with the time, the risk appetite, and the disposable income to treat it as what it really is: a high-risk, high-effort pursuit that most people lose at. Maybe one day I'll set up an investing club for NHS colleagues who want to explore that side of things together. (By the way, I'm a Value Quality guy — let me know what style of stock picker you are.)
But when it comes to building the wealth that actually changes your life, and your children's wealth — the wealth that buys your freedom, secures your family's future, and means you never have to work a shift you don't want to — individual stock picking has no seat at that table.
But the Bessembinder data doesn't care about how smart you are. It doesn't care about your YouTube research or your gut feeling. Nearly 100 years and 29,000 stocks tell the same story.
The market's wealth is created by a tiny handful of companies that nobody can reliably identify in advance.
The only rational response? Own them all.
What To Do Next
If you're an NHS worker who's been thinking about investing but got distracted by the idea of stock picking, here's your action plan:
1. Open a Stocks & Shares ISA — if you haven't already. You can invest up to £20,000 per year completely tax-free.
2. Choose a low-cost global index fund — something that tracks thousands of companies worldwide. Keep your fees below 0.25%.
3. Set up a monthly direct debit — even £25 a month is a start. Automate it so you don't even have to think about it.
4. Leave it alone — don't check it daily. Don't panic when the market dips. The Bessembinder data shows that time is the single biggest factor in building wealth.
5. Claim your tax rebates — if you're washing your own scrubs, paying professional body fees, or buying equipment, you could be owed hundreds in tax relief. That's money you can redirect straight into your investments.
Final Thought
The financial system isn't set up to teach you this stuff. Not at school. Not at medical school. Not during your NHS induction.
That's why I built Medical Finance Academy. Because every NHS professional deserves to understand how money actually works.
Sources:
Bessembinder, H. (2024). "Which U.S. Stocks Generated the Highest Long-Term Returns?" Journal of Performance Measurement, Fall 2024.
Bessembinder, H. (2018). "Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?" Journal of Financial Economics, 129(3), 440-457.
Bessembinder, H., Chen, T.F., Choi, G., Wei, K.C.J. (2023). "Long-term Shareholder Returns: Evidence from 64,000 Global Stocks." Financial Analysts Journal, 79(3), 33-63.
SPIVA U.S. Scorecard, S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Ready to Start? Here's Your Next Step
You've just read the numbers. You know what starting early does. You know what waiting costs. And somewhere in the back of your mind, you're probably thinking — "okay, but where do I ACTUALLY begin?"
That's exactly where I come in.
One-to-One Investment Coaching — Built for NHS Professionals like you~
I've spent 15 years making every investing mistake you can possibly make.
I bought the wrong funds. I only invested in individual stocks. I panic-sold at the wrong time. I ignored tax efficiency for years and handed money to the government I didn't need to. I read over 80 investment books — from Warren Buffett to Nassim Taleb to Howard Marks to Morgan Housel — so I could filter out the noise and find what actually works for someone with a busy NHS career and a real life to live.
You get all of that. In a few focused sessions. Without any of the painful, expensive lessons.
Think about it this way.
Most people spend years making avoidable mistakes before they find their feet with investing. Wrong accounts. Wrong funds. Wrong timing. Each mistake costs real money — sometimes thousands of pounds.
My coaching compresses that entire learning curve. You skip the mistakes. You start right. You build faster.
And Here's the Part That Surprises Most People
This coaching effectively PAYS FOR ITSELF
Within the first few months of working together, most clients unlock tax rebates and tax-efficient strategies they didn't even know existed — through their NHS pension, SIPP contributions, ISAs, and workplace expenses they were entitled to claim back but never did.
That money? It was always yours. You just didn't know how to claim it.
Add in the investment returns from starting sooner and starting smarter — and the coaching fee isn't a cost. It's an investment with one of the fastest returns you'll ever make.
Here's What I Want You to Do Right Now
Step 1 — Check your financial health in under 5 minutes
Before anything else, take the free Financial Health Score self-assessment. It gives you an honest snapshot of exactly where you stand with your money right now — budgeting, debt, savings, investing, and tax efficiency.
No judgment. Just clarity.
Step 2 — Book your 1-to-1 coaching session
If you're ready to stop guessing and start building — reach out directly.
📧 Email: simon.wong@medicalfinanceacademy.com
📞 Phone/WhatsApp: +44 7923 069 623
Whatsapp: +44 7923 069 623
P.S. The biggest regret I hear from NHS professionals I coach? "I wish I'd started this sooner." Let's make sure that's not you.
One conversation could be the financial turning point you look back on in ten years and think — "that's when everything changed."
The knowledge is here. The plan is here. The only thing missing is you.
Let's build your financial future — properly, this time.
Disclaimer
All content on this blog is provided for general financial education and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, legal or any other professional advice. Nothing on this site takes into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs, and you should not rely on it to make any financial decision.
You remain solely responsible for your own decisions and must do your own research, due diligence and independent learning before acting on any information mentioned or implied here. Examples, case studies and any numbers used are purely illustrative and cannot be guaranteed or replicated in your circumstances.
Investing and financial planning carry risks, and the value of any investment can go down as well as up. Before making any financial, investment or tax decisions, you should seek personalized advice from a suitably qualified, regulated professional adviser.
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